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Streaming, catch-up services on verge of eclipsing TV advertising - July 2024

Broadcasters will make the same revenue from advertising on streaming and catch-up services as they do from free-to-air television within four years amid a reinvention of the media’s business model.

That’s the conclusion of a comprehensive sector outlook report published by PwC on Tuesday, which found revenue growth had stalled in the last year, falling from 6.6 per cent in 2022 to 2.8 per cent. The survey covers television, publishing, film, gaming and other forms of entertainment.

In all, revenues rose to $62.3 billion, despite a decline in television and news media. The last 12 months has been a difficult one for the industry, with the end of a lucrative content deal with Facebook and Instagram’s parent company, Meta, reducing revenue to major publishers.

Nine Entertainment, the publisher of The Australian Financial Review, will make about 200 staff redundant this year; News Corp Australia has a plan to cut $65 million in costs and has already started losing journalists.

But the PwC report, an annual and widely followed publication within the industry, suggests that a decades-long pivot away from free-to-air television and newspaper publishing may be reaching its final stages. It estimates that digital revenue now represents 70 per cent of spending, up from 54 per cent in 2019. That is forecast to rise to 79 per cent by 2028.

“Advertising supported ‘watch’ businesses demonstrate the clear shift by consumers towards on-demand content, delivered over the open internet,” the report reads.

“Online TV, comprising broadcast video on-demand services plus advertising revenues from [subscription video] services’ new ad tiers, is steadily becoming more popular.”

At Nine’s last financial update, for the six months to December 31, the company said revenue had fallen 2 per cent to $1.37 billion, while earnings dropped 15 per cent to $316.1 million. Stan, however, grew its revenue by 11 per cent to $228.4 million, as the streaming platform increased prices.

‘Further along in transition’

E&P Capital’s Entcho Raykovski said Nine’s free-to-air advertising revenue had been slightly better than expected, but growth at 9Now, the company’s free streaming platform, had been “slightly lower than the company’s expectation”. E&P expected revenue growth of 13.7 per cent for 9Now in the six months to June 30. Nine reports on August 28.

Brian Han, an analyst at Morningstar, said Nine was better placed than its traditional rival, Seven West Media, because it was “further along in the transition from linear to a multichannel, digital-centric model”.

“Nine’s 9Now will also get a strong boost from the Olympics coverage,” he said. “Seven’s 7plus should also get a boost from next year when AFL can [be] streamed live and on-demand. All this should see advertiser interest.”

Just over half of those surveyed by PwC, however, said they watched traditional, free-to-air commercial television. That is down from 61 per cent in 2020. Some 31 per cent watched commercial television online in the last week, up from 29 per cent last year; public broadcasters, primarily the ABC, still offered the most popular free online television services.

Far more competition

PwC expects advertising revenues from traditional broadcasts to drop to around $3.5 billion by 2028 from more than $4 billion, with those from subscription and catch-up services increasing to a similar level from just over $2 billion this year.

Online, however, broadcasters face far more competition. Netflix reported this month that it has 277.65 million subscribers around the world, boosted by the success of hit shows like Bridgerton and Baby Reindeer.

Louise King, PwC’s lead partner for media and entertainment, said local companies had often lagged international players transforming their businesses away from traditional sources of revenue.

But Ms King said there were a number of advantages local companies, including Nine and Seven, had over larger overseas rivals.

“The regulation that has protected them is not as useful as it used to be, but some really great Australian content has been produced and that has been aired on the local players first,” she said, adding that favoured access to local sports broadcasting rights was likely to also benefit those companies.

“Should that shift it would be challenging,” she said.

Morningstar’s Mr Han said the inflection point – between traditional revenue and new, digital sources – “may have already been reached”.

“Nine generates more than half of its earnings from digital sources such as 9Now, Stan, Domain and digital parts of Fairfax and radio,” he said. “Seven probably is already making more profit from 7plus and its digital properties from linear free-to-air TV.

“These digital contributions are only likely to grow as advertisers follow audience to an on-demand, streaming environment.” (AFR, Wries)

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UFC 305: Pre-Fight Press Conference - August 16, 2024
https://youtube.com/watch?v=UAcpAT4Y_kQ&t=4s

Perth, Western Australia

Highlights of the verbal fight between champion Dricus "Stillnocks" du Plessis and challenger Israel Izzy "The Last Stylebender" Adesanya included:

“Are you taking the servants with you when you’re going back [to Africa with the belt]? Are you taking the servants with you if you’re going back?” du Plessis asked.

“What the *uck are you even on about?” Adesanya

“My God, it’s obviously a see and tell. We can see that. What do you mean? You’re saying that I made [the build-up to UFC 305] about culture?” du Plessis

“Bro, shut the f*ck up. You don’t even know anything about my story. You have no idea who the f*ck I am” Adesanya

“I don’t care about your story. I don’t care about your story” du Plessis

“Listen, my father and myself had to wake up at 4 a.m. and clean the banks while my mom studies to be a nurse” Izzy

“You don’t know my f*cking story. Don’t f*cking speak on my story if you don’t know my story. I will show you who you are Sunday, so right now shut the f*ck up.” Izzy

“I can’t wait” du Plessis

“You’re talking about, I made [the build-up] about anything else than being the first residing African champ. I am the first.” du Plessis

“You did, you did” Izzy

“You couldn’t even respect the people of the land. [At the] welcome to the country [ceremony to start UFC 305 fight week], you were the one not even doing anything. I took my shoes off to connect with the people, with the [natives]. What did you do? You stand there and try to mean mug me. Are you stupid?” Izzy

“My man” du Plessis

“I’m not your f*cking man, bitch” Izzy

“You sound silly, you sound like a f*cking pig. I will slay you, Porky Pig” Izzy

“You can’t change the facts” du Plessis

“You can’t change those facts.” du Plessis

“He touched a subject there because I do this for my family” Adesanya

“I do this for the people I love, and I will fight for you forever, I swear to God. Watch this. Look, I am a *ucking human being, I am a man. I can cry and whoop your ass at the same time.

“First time I fought here [in Perth], [UFC] 221, that was February 2018, that was me making me dreams come true. Sunday, I’m going to f*cking kill your dreams, bitch. I’m going to f*cking kill your dreams” Izzy

“There’s no place for odds in the octagon, I have to say that, but obviously the oddsmakers are seeing what I know and seeing what the people are seeing” du Plessis

“It’s pretty evident. Like I said, the man needs to be motivated to be back here. He had an emotional feel to be back here. He said it, he’s motivated by me, that’s what gets him back in here” du Plessis

“I’m motivated by greatness. I’m not motivated by some person. If he doesn’t step in, I’ll be the same motivated fighter that steps in there, and anybody can see this. Once again, it’s about how bad do you want it. It’s pretty evident how bad I want this. And on Sunday morning, there will be no doubt of how bad I wanted this.” du Plessis

Media Continued ...

“I'm going to fight for the fight of my life this time" Izzy

Many fans chant "Izzy, Izzy, Izzy"

de Plessis raises UFC title and points to it, getting a mixed reaction. Different vibe to the Sydney 293 when "Tarzan" Strickland had the vast majority of fans in his corner.

Fun fact gonzo style: In pro wrestling its not quite "Dirty" Dick Murdoch (or Colonel DeBeers) vs The Junk Yard Dog aka JYD, but you get the idea. Real heat here fans! Fans will be wide awake for this one, but can one fighter put the other to sleep?!

Videos

UFC 305 Embedded: Vlog Series - Episode 1 https://youtube.com/watch?v=bdtnIiKbMoA

Champ Dricus Du Plessis and Israel Adesanya train for their title bout; Steve Erceg walks his dog; Jairzinho Rozenstruik eats after training; Tai Tuivasa arrives in Perth; Carlos Prates hangs out with his mom; Kai Kara-France gets a haircut. (Credit: UFC)

UFC 305 Embedded: Vlog Series - Episode 2 https://youtube.com/watch?v=SExOmPWMKVU

Champ Dricus Du Plessis shows off his belt; The City Kickboxing team trains together; Mateusz Gamrot explores nature; Carlos Prates gets one last cardio session in at home; Steve Erceg hangs out with his parents; Tai Tuivasa has a hard workout session. (Credit: UFC)

UFC 305 Countdown - Du Plessis vs Adesanya https://youtube.com/watch?v=wLfQ6aHxELY

The UFC 305 Countdown previews the intense rivalry between UFC middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis and former champ Israel Adesanya ahead of their historic main event, which marks the first time two African-born fighters battle for a UFC title. Don't miss the main card action that kicks off at 10pm ET / 7pm PT on Saturday August 17. (Credit: UFC)

"Cultural roots run deep for the people of Africa. The pride of the nation is echoed through its sporting culture. In recent years the rise of African fighters in the UFC has been clear and present" ... Narrator

Articles

Ferguson dumped as Nine scrambles for No. 1 - The Sydney Morning Herald - 12th January 2009

Strong local content - The Sunday Age - 5th October 2008

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