New
Zealand telecoms market tipped to slow next year
ahead of a surge in 2009
For
immediate release
For
more information:
Paul
Budde +61 2 49988144, paul@budde.com.au
or
go to www.budde.com.au
New
Zealand telecoms market tipped to slow next year
ahead of a surge in 2009
Sydney,
Australia, 6 December 2007 — After modest
growth of 1.1% last financial year, New Zealand's
telecoms market is set to slow further with revenues
expected to increase less than 1% for 2007-08,
a new report from independent researcher BuddeComm
forecasts.
According
to 2008 New Zealand – Telecoms Overview
and Analysis, the biggest culprit for the slow-down
is fixed voice, with revenues tipped to fall 4%
next financial year, which comes on top of the
2% drop for 2006-07.
"As
phone call prices and volumes continue to slip,
more people will give up their traditional home
phone line and move to alternative access networks,
such as mobile and Voice over IP, as well as products
using data and IP-based solutions," says
the New Zealand report's author, Phil Harpur.
Interestingly,
revenue from mobiles is expected to pick up, jumping
3.2% in the coming financial year, following a
paltry 0.4% lift this year. This was despite unusually
high growth of 11.6% in subscribers for 2006-07.
Growth in subscribers, though, is forecast to
fall sharply next year to 2.9% and 2.3% the year
after. "The local mobile market is approaching
saturation," Harpur says.
According
to a second BuddeComm report newly released, 2008
New Zealand – Mobile & Broadband Overview
and Analysis, mobile voice is becoming simply
another commodity service, which will pressure
the duopoly of Vodafone and Telecom to lower their
high mobile rates.
While
growth is expected to be flat over the next 12
months, the telecoms market is forecast to pick
up in 2008-09, with market revenue anticipated
to surge by 2.8 percent. This will primarily be
driven by data, internet and value-added services
and pay TV.
"Over
time, the new environment will open up lots of
new opportunities for everybody involved,"
says Harpur. "Value-added infrastructure
opportunities such as data centres, content hosting
and network management are just a few examples.
But equally a range of innovative customer services
can be built on the new wholesale products, and
open networks will create an exciting new environment
for digital media, e-health, tele-education and
smart grid applications."
The
BuddeComm reports predict that data, internet
and value-added services will be the main market
drivers, with growth of 8% for the 2008-09 financial
year. This follows more modest rises of 4.2% this
financial year and 2.5% next year.
The
bundling of voice, data and video services (triple
play) and mobile services (quadruple play) are
likely to take off in 2008 and 2009. As well,
New Zealand is conducting WiMAX trials, although
there are delays in a full rollout of the wireless
system. CallPlus is one operator considering the
technology.
In
addition, the introduction of ADSL2+ services
will increasingly deliver, in time, VoIP and IPTV
and a host of other digital media services. When
Telecom's next-generation network is completed
by 2012, the carrier is expected deliver a range
of services including VoIP, video calling, converged
fixed-mobile offerings, interactive television
and Video on Demand.
"New
Zealand's broadband penetration is finally catching
up to the rest of the world, with overall subscriber
growth more than 30% in 2006/07," says Harpur.
BuddeComm
has also released its annual telecoms report on
the South Pacific. According to the report, the
number of Pacific Islanders with a telecom services
remains low – less than half have a phone
– although mobile and internet penetration
is improving on the larger islands, such as Fiji,
PNG and Guam.
Mobile
telephony is expected to outpace fixed-line connections,
while satellite, wireless and fixed-line broadband
as well as WiMAX and high-speed ADSL2+ are increasingly
finding toeholds in island markets across the
South Pacific.
Cost
of 2008 New Zealand – Telecoms Overview
and Analysis is $795, 2008 New Zealand –
Mobile & Broadband Overview and Analysis is
$695; and 2007 South Pacific Islands – Telecoms,
Mobile and Broadband is $595. All prices exclude
GST and are for a PDF with a single user licence.
Prices available on request for multi user licence
and hardcopy.
For
detailed information, table of contents and pricing
see:
www.budde.com.au/publications/annual/new-zealand-south-pacific/new-zealand-south-pacific.html
About
BuddeComm
BuddeComm
is an independent global telecommunications research
and consultancy company, specialising in new media,
with 45 researchers spread across 15 countries.
The company publishes more than 100 research reports
each year analysing global communications markets,
trends and business opportunities.
PAUL
BUDDE Communication Pty Ltd,
T/As BuddeComm
5385 George Downes Drive
BUCKETTY NSW 2250B,
Ph 02 49 988 144 (international x 61 2 4998 8144)
Fx 02 49 988 247 (international x 61 2 4998 8247)
mailto:pbc@budde.com.au
http://www.budde.com.au
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contact BuddeComm to have your address removed.
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research team use their best efforts in the collection
and preparation of the information included in
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caused by errors or omissions, whether such errors
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