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Markets, Cryptos and Culture

January 2026

Jan 29

Sydney, Australia to Wall Street, New York

Gold Glitters, Silver Gains And Crypto's Start To Shine Again Edition
"Goldfinger" Shirley Bassey
"Working for the Weekend" Loverboy
"Working for the Man" Roy Orbison
"Tuesday's Gone" Lynyrd Skynyrd
"Gold" Spandau Ballet
"Stretch Your Face" Silicon_Valley theme (Tobacco. Composer)
"Mercy, Mercy, Mercy"(Cannonball Adderley). The Wolf of Wall Street theme
"Gypsys, Tramps & Thieves" Cher
"Working in the Coal Mine" Lee Dorsey
"The Wall Street Shuffle" 10cc

Markets

ASX 200 futures down 4 points to 8893

AUD +0.1% to US70.14¢

Bitcoin $89,294.44 +0.14%

Wall St:

Dow +0.0%
S&P +0.0%
Nasdaq +0.2%
VIX -0.15 to 16.20
Gold +3% to $US5333.84 an ounce
Silver 118.388 USD +35.444
Oil +1.4% to $US68.51 a barrel
Iron ore -0.7% to $US103.05 a tonne

10-year yield:
US 4.25%
Australia 4.81%

News

Numbers Double Check

Australian Dollar: $0.7010 USD (unchanged) Iron Ore Price: $102.90 USD (down $0.70 USD) Oil Price: $63.37 USD (up $0.79 USD) Gold Price: $5,360.22 USD (up $180.69 USD) Copper Price: $5.9600 USD (up $0.0135 USD) Dow Jones: 48,970.54 (down 32.87 points)

News

Alphabet Inc Class A
$336.01 +1.46 +0.44%

Netflix Inc
$84.64 -0.94 -1.10%

Tesla Inc
$430.46 -0.44 -0.10%

News

Cryptos

Jan 29

This is just a mild crypto winter

Market Overview
The crypto market capitalisation rose by another 1.1% over 24 hours to $3.02 trillion, mirroring the dollar's weakening during this period. But this strengthening looks pale, as high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies often move in much larger steps. For example, along with an 8% weakening of the dollar from April to June last year, Bitcoin rose by more than 50%.

Without delving too deeply into history, it is easy to see that the 4% drop in the dollar index in less than two weeks was met with a 30% jump in silver and a 15% jump in gold. The US S&P 500 is also rewriting historical highs. Against this backdrop, even a slight increase in market capitalisation looks like a mild winter for cryptocurrencies, and a deeper decline is only a matter of time.
Bitcoin continues to attempt to consolidate above $89K. This resistance level, approaching a round number, is reinforced by the 50-day moving average. BTC's position relative to this curve indicates a bearish market. Due to a relatively favourable external environment, it has managed to successfully defend support near $85K. Still, fluctuations about a third below the highs of the last two months are cause for pessimism. Neither institutional demand nor the president's pro-cryptocurrency administration has helped to overcome the accumulated fatigue after the rally of the previous three years. News Background

In these times of uncertainty and stress in the markets, investors are selling the first cryptocurrency en masse to get cash, turning Bitcoin into an ‘ATM,’ according to NYDIG. This is damaging Bitcoin's reputation.
According to Santiment, against the backdrop of the gold rally, the capitalisation of stablecoins has fallen by $2.24 billion over the past 10 days. This indicates an outflow of capital from the cryptocurrency market into traditional safe-haven assets and may delay its recovery.
Strategy has reduced its Bitcoin purchases by almost eight times in a week. The company purchased 2,932 BTC ($264.1 million) between 19 and 25 January at an average price of $90,061 per coin. Strategy now owns 712,647 BTC, purchased for $54.2 billion at an average price of $76,037 per Bitcoin.
Japanese company Metaplanet incurred an unrealised loss of $680 million in 2025 due to the depreciation of its Bitcoin reserve. According to BitcoinTreasuries, the ‘Asian Strategy’ owns 35,102 BTC worth $3.1 billion.
Bitmine, the largest corporate holder of Ethereum, reported that it has accumulated 4,243,338 ETH worth more than $12 billion. This represents 3.52% of the total ETH supply, with a target of 5%.
Tether has launched a separate stablecoin for the US market. USAT was created in accordance with last year's Genius Act, which sets rules for stablecoins and is the first significant piece of legislation for the crypto industry in the country. (FxPro)

News

Gold benefits from the weak dollar

The US Dollar decline looks like a part of the White House's plan.

Gold is rising on capital inflows.

Donald Trump has added fuel to the fire of the falling US dollar. The president's words that the value of the dollar is ‘great’ underlined that US officials are comfortable with the dollar’s decline, only reinforcing the drop to its lowest level since February 2022. This is causing a rally of the main forex pair to 1.20, despite the forecasted 5.4% growth in US GDP in the fourth quarter, and the FOMC’s unwillingness to cut rates until at least June, according to leading indicators from the Atlanta Fed. The White House is sticking to its guns. In Davos, Trump asked a rhetorical question: why is the US economy strong, the risk of default low, and interest rates higher than in other countries? The United States pays 4.2% on its 10-year debt, while Japan pays 2.2% and China 1.8%. And this is a heavy amount ticking on top of the $38 trillion debt, a staggering additional cost to the budget.
Donald Trump wants to reduce borrowing costs. The Fed’s models show a direct link between a strong economy and the risks of accelerating inflation.

However, fundamental analysis suggests that a strong economy cannot have a weak currency. The example of the US dollar shows that it can.

Will the Fed put a spoke in the wheel of the EURUSD bulls? Jerome Powell can do so with his hawkish rhetoric. However, if the central bank retains the phrase about considering additional rate adjustments in the accompanying statement, this could, on the contrary, accelerate the fall of the dollar. The markets will perceive such a move as a signal of resistance to a prolonged pause in the cycle of monetary expansion.
The collapse of the USD index allowed gold to break above $5,300 per ounce for the first time in history.

Precious metals act as a politically neutral asset. They react to White House policy but are not dependent on it in the same way as stocks, bonds and the US dollar. As a result, investors are increasing their gold holdings to hedge against political risks. Gold got support from both capital flights from the US and capital outflows from the cryptocurrency market. Many believed that Donald Trump's promise to turn America into the world crypto capital would cause Bitcoin to break record after record. In fact, it has become an asset dependent on White House policy. (FxPro)

News

Cryptos

The crypto market rose due to dollar weakness

Market Overview

The crypto market cap has fallen by 5% over the past seven days. The decline resumed at the start of the new week, with total capitalisation falling to $2.9T amid slippage in an illiquid market. In recent hours, however, positive momentum has prevailed, bringing the market back to $2.97T due to the weakness of the US dollar and global purchases of risky assets. But even now, cryptocurrencies remain a lagging class of risk-sensitive assets, falling short of metals and the strongest global currencies.

Bitcoin hit a low for the day near $86K, its lowest level since December. After that, the market received support from the weak dollar, which, like a tide, lifted all boats at once. The technical bearish picture remains relevant, despite the gains in recent hours. BTC remains below its key moving average lines and has not attempted to break through the support of the last two months. News Background

Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US over the past shortened week nearly offset the previous week's inflows, reaching their highest level in almost 11 months. According to SoSoValue, net outflows from spot BTC ETFs amounted to $1.33 billion. Net weekly outflows from spot Ethereum ETFs in the US exceeded $611 million.

Bitcoin holders began to record net losses for the first time since October 2023, signalling the asset's entry into an ‘early bear market.’ Bitcoin is now trading below the acquisition price of 75% of the total supply, signalling growing pressure from sellers, Glassnode notes.

The main reason for BTC's weakness is large-scale sales by long-term holders, rather than concerns about quantum computing, according to Checkonchain.

Activity on the Ethereum mainnet has exceeded that of layer 2 (L2) solutions since the Fusaka upgrade. Token Terminal has called this trend a ‘return to the mainnet.’ At the same time, there has been an outflow of liquidity from ‘add-ons.’

The adoption of cryptocurrencies by banks, large corporations and investment companies is no longer an ‘optional or peripheral’ process, notes auditing firm PwC in its report on global cryptocurrency regulation for 2026. ‘Institutional participation has passed the point of no return.’

DAT companies accumulating cryptocurrencies on their balance sheets will face ‘severe consolidation’ in the coming year — only a few of the largest players with Bitcoin and Ethereum on their balance sheets will survive, warns Pantera Capital. (FxPro)

News Lead Up

Interventions spooked the dollar

Rumours of coordinated intervention caused the USD index to plummet.

The risk of a new shutdown is putting pressure on the greenback.

The US dollar started in the last week of January with a down gap amid investor fears of coordinated currency intervention. Japan's Deputy Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura said that the authorities would respond to speculative actions on the Forex in close cooperation with the US. In 1985, such cooperation ended in a spectacular collapse of the USD. Will we see history repeat itself?

Politics is encroaching on the economy. Donald Trump intends to use non-market methods to lower the key policy rate by replacing the Fed chair and filling the FOMC with doves. The US president has repeatedly spoken out in favour of a weaker currency, which would increase the competitiveness of American manufacturers. Tokyo's interest in strengthening the yen to lower import prices and slow inflation is being exploited by Washington for its own purposes.

Countries are forced to respond to the uncertainty of Donald Trump's policies and the associated slowdown in economic growth with fiscal stimulus measures. According to Apollo Global Management estimates, government support measures will accelerate GDP growth in the US and Germany by 1 percentage point in 2026 and in Japan by 0.5 percentage points. This leads to an increase in public debt. The Germans can afford this, which has a positive effect on the EURUSD.

Pressure on the US dollar has intensified due to the growing risks of another shutdown. Dissatisfied with the shootings in Minneapolis, Democrats are not going to vote for the government funding package without serious changes to the national security system. The government risks being sidelined again, which will negatively affect GDP growth. The same goes for the devastating winter storm, which could bring hardship to nearly 200 million Americans. Already, 11,900 flights have been cancelled at airports from Dallas to Boston, and about 900,000 consumers are without power.

In 2025, the US economy managed to withstand tariffs and the shutdown thanks to investments in artificial intelligence, productivity growth and the wealth effect. However, will it be resilient in 2026? If not, the US dollar risks weakening.

Gold was the main beneficiary of the fall in the USD index. Its price rose by 17% so far this year and is approaching $5,100 per ounce. (FxPro)

News Lead Up

Jan 27

Gold and silver mania lifts ASX to 3-month peak

The Australian sharemarket climbed to a three-month high on Tuesday as investors returned from the long weekend to surging precious metal prices, looking past the noise of shifting US trade policies.

President Donald Trump said in a social media post that he will increase tariffs on South Korean goods, including autos, from 15 per cent to 25 per cent as he accused the ally’s legislature of “not living up” to its trade deal with Washington.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 85.3 points, or 1 per cent, to 8945.40, rebounding from last week’s 0.5 per cent loss. If sustained, it would be the index’s biggest one-day rise this year.

Of the 11 sectors, nine were in the green, led by materials and energy.BHP leapt 2.9 per cent, regaining its position as Australia’s most valuable listed company for the first time in 18 months, unseating the Commonwealth Bank, which managed a modest 0.6 per cent gain.

Miners led the charge as gold and silver set fresh records. Bullion hit $US5100 an ounce, and silver topped $US114 on Monday. As a result, Horizon Minerals jumped nearly 8 per cent, Alkane Resources leapt 3.9 per cent, and Newmont rose 1.8 per cent.

Among silver mines, Investigator Silver and Silver Mines advanced 8.3 per cent each, while, Sun Silver pushed up 6 per cent.Elsewhere, Rio Tinto gained 2.2 per cent, and Capstone Copper was the biggest index gainer, up 8 per cent.

In the index-heavy financial area, all the big banks were in the green, led by Macquarie Group, up 2 per cent. National Australia Bank rose 1.3 per cent.

Family app Life360 and mining group Alcoa were the two biggest laggards, down more than 8 per cent.

In currencies, the Australian dollar climbed to US69.40¢, nearing its strongest level in three years, on growing expectations the Reserve Bank will lift the cash rate next month.

Higher borrowing costs would boost the appeal of Australian-denominated assets such as government bonds.

Also supporting the Aussie was a broadly weaker greenback on fears of a partial US government shutdown this week.

Republicans and Democrats are at odds over funding for the Department of Homeland Security after the fatal shooting of a second US citizen by federal immigration officers in Minnesota. (AFR) *full coverage via subscription to The Australian Financial Review

News Flashback

News/Profile

Wall Street

Physical Street and Landmark

Wall Street is an eight-block-long street in the Financial District of Lower Manhattan.

Location: It runs between Broadway and South Street, ending at the East River.

Key Landmarks: It is home to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Federal Hall National Memorial, where George Washington was inaugurated.

History: The name originates from a 17th-century defensive wall built by Dutch settlers to protect New Amsterdam from potential British or Native American attacks.

Financial Industry Metonym

The term is a metonym for the U.S. financial markets, including stock exchanges, investment banks, and brokerage firms.

Institutions: Major firms associated with Wall Street include JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley.

Current Activity (January 2026):

As of January 24, 2026, markets have seen volatility following a week of "policy whiplash" related to international tariff threats. Recent trading shows the S&P 500 flat, while the Nasdaq has risen 0.3% despite a 17% tumble in Intel stock.

Media and Publications

The Wall Street Journal: A premier business-focused international newspaper headquartered in Midtown Manhattan.

Pop Culture: The street’s high-stakes culture has been immortalized in films like Oliver Stone’s Wall Street (1987) and Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street (2013).

News

Best Quotes Of The Day

Media Man

Cryptocurrency, Finance and World

"Volatility is Satoshi’s gift to the faithful." - Michael Saylor

"Bitcoin is a tool for freeing humanity from oligarchs and tyrants, dressed up as a get-rich-quick scheme." — Naval Ravikant

"We have elected to put our money and faith in a mathematical framework that is free of politics and human error." — Tyler Winklevoss

"You can't stop things like Bitcoin. It will be everywhere, and the world will have to readjust. World governments will have to readjust." — John McAfee

"Bitcoin is the most important invention in the history of the world since the Internet." — Roger Ver

"Cryptocurrency is such a powerful concept that it can almost overturn governments." — Charles Lee

"In the future, national currencies will become obsolete. Bitcoin will become the single global currency." — Jack Dorsey

"The future of finance is crypto, whether it’s in payments, contracts, or savings." — Changpeng Zhao

"Crypto offers freedom to the unbanked and hope to the underprivileged." — Elizabeth Stark

"The new frontier of innovation is in decentralization. Blockchain leads the charge." — Don Tapscott

"Digital currency is here to stay, and it’s only a matter of how long before governments embrace it." — Brad Garlinghouse

Pop Culture

Dream Matches: Fantasy Booking

Santa vs Grinch
Bulls vs Bears
Crypto King vs Mr World Bank
Citizens vs NWO
Neo vs Agent Smith
John McAfee vs You Know Who!
TKO vs Naysayers
Jake Paul, Polymarket and BETR vs Naysayers
Pro Boxing vs Newspaper Reports
VKM vs The World
Paul Bros vs Mainstream Wokes
Mr X vs Mr Bluesky
Chris Jericho vs Dirtsheets
NFL vs everyone
Zuffa vs MVP
Netflix vs World
Meta vs Australia
White Light vs Dark Matter
Lexis King vs NIL's (WWE NXT)
Volk vs Naysayers (UFC: Sydney, Australia)
Brock Lesnar vs Everyone! (WWE Royal Rumble)

News

Pop Culture

It’s All About the Money [”The Million Dollar Man” Ted DiBiase]

By Jimmy Hart & J.J. Maguire

Intro

(Money, money, money, money, money...)

[Verse 1] (Money, money, money, money, money...)

Everybody's got a price Everybody's gonna pay

(Money, money, money, money, money...)

Because the Million Dollar Man... Always get his way

(Money, money, money, money, money...) [Verse 2] (Money, money, money, money, money...)

Some might cost a little Some might cost a lot

(Money, money, money, money, money...)

But I'm the Million Dollar Man... And you will be bought

(Money, money, money, money, money...) [Outro]

(Money, money, money, money, money...)

News/Profile Flashback

Vinnie Vegas was a professional wrestling persona used by the actor and retired professional wrestler Kevin Nash from 1992 to 1993 in World Championship Wrestling (WCW). This gimmick was a wisecracking pseudo-mobster character, inspired by Steve Martin's character in the 1990 film My Blue Heaven.

Career Overview

WCW Debut: Kevin Nash was repackaged as Vinnie Vegas on January 21, 1992, at the event Clash of the Champions XVIII.

Stables and Tag Teams: He was initially part of a stable of large wrestlers called "A Half-Ton of Holy Hell," managed by Harley Race. Later, he joined the "Diamond Mine" stable led by Diamond Dallas Page, forming a tag team known as the Vegas Connection. Other stablemates included the future Scott Hall (Diamond Studd) and Raven (Scotty Flamingo).

Departure to WWF: The Vinnie Vegas character was not considered successful due to a lack of character development and inconsistent booking. Nash left WCW for the World Wrestling Federation (WWF, now WWE) in June 1993, where he achieved superstardom under the ring name Diesel.

Later Success: Nash later returned to WCW in 1996 and was a founding member of the influential New World Order (nWo) faction under his real name, Kevin Nash, and the nickname "Big Sexy".

News/Profile Flashback

Michael Wall Street

"Michael Wall Street" most commonly refers to Michael Wallstreet, a ring name used by professional wrestler Mike Rotunda (born 1958). It can also refer to Michael Douglas, the actor famous for portraying the corporate raider Gordon Gekko in the film Wall Street.

Professional Wrestling (Mike Rotunda)

Mike Rotunda adopted the persona of Michael Wallstreet (and later V.K. Wallstreet) in World Championship Wrestling (WCW) starting in 1990.

The Gimmick: A wealthy "financial wizard" from Lower Manhattan who used a computer (managed by Alexandra York) to predict the length and outcome of his matches.

Signature Moves: His finishing move was often called the "Stock Market Crash".

Notable Teams: He is also well-known for his time in the WWF as Irwin R. Schyster (I.R.S.), where he teamed with Ted DiBiase to form Money Inc..

Legacy: Rotunda was inducted into the WWE Hall of Fame Class of 2024 as part of The U.S. Express.

Film and Finance (Michael Douglas)

Gordon Gekko: Michael Douglas won the Academy Award for Best Actor for his role as Gordon Gekko in the 1987 film Wall Street.

Cultural Impact: The character became the archetypal symbol of 1980s corporate greed, famous for the line "Greed, for lack of a better word, is good".

Sequel: Douglas reprised the role in the 2010 sequel, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps.

Current Status (2026)

Mike Rotunda: As of early 2026, Rotunda remains a respected veteran in the wrestling industry. Recent reports from late 2025 indicated he had been hospitalized for a serious heart condition but was moved to a rehabilitation center for recovery.

Michael Douglas: He continues to be active in the entertainment industry as an actor and producer.

Miners

Hancock Prospecting

Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd is a privately owned Australian company primarily involved in the mining of iron ore and, increasingly, the agriculture sector. It is led by Executive Chairwoman Gina Rinehart, Australia's richest person.

Company Overview

Founded: 25 November 1955 by Lang Hancock.
Headquarters: Perth, Western Australia, Australia.

Ownership: The company is privately held, with Gina Rinehart owning the majority stake (76.6%).

Core Business: Hancock Prospecting has evolved from purely mineral exploration into a major producer, primarily in iron ore and agriculture, and is considered one of the most successful private mining companies in the world.

Major Projects and Investments

Hancock Prospecting has a diverse portfolio of major projects and strategic investments.

Roy Hill: This is a mega integrated iron ore mine, rail, and port project in the Pilbara region of Western Australia, which is Australia's largest single iron ore mine.

Hope Downs: A significant iron ore project operated as a 50/50 joint venture with Rio Tinto Iron Ore, which includes four open-pit mines.

Atlas Iron: Hancock Prospecting acquired Atlas Iron in 2018, which operates several iron ore mines including Mount Webber, Sanjiv Ridge, and Miralga Creek.

Agriculture: Through its agribusiness division, Hancock Prospecting is Australia's second-largest producer of beef with ownership interests in numerous cattle stations and a majority stake in S. Kidman & Co. It is also a 50% partner in the award-winning Bannister Downs Dairy.

Critical Minerals and Energy: The company has diversified its investments into other strategic commodities necessary for the "green transition", including stakes in publicly traded companies involved in:

Lithium: Investments in Australian firms like Liontown Resources and Azure Minerals, as well as Germany's Vulcan Energy Resources.

Rare Earths: Significant shareholdings in global rare earths producers such as US-based MP Materials and Australia's Lynas Rare Earths, as well as exploration-stage companies.

Copper, Coal, Oil and Gas: Exploration and production interests in these commodities across Australia and internationally, including projects in Ecuador, Canada, and the UK.

Pop Culture Flashback

Heart Of Gold

Song by Neil Young ? 1972

Lyrics

I want to live I want to give I've been a miner For a heart of gold

It's these expressions I never give That keep me searching For a heart of gold And I'm getting old Keep me searching For a heart of gold And I'm getting old

I've been to Hollywood I've been to Redwood I crossed the ocean For a heart of gold

I've been in my mind It's such a fine line

That keeps me searching For a heart of gold

And I'm getting old

Keeps me searching For a heart of gold

And I'm getting old

Keep me searching For a heart of gold

You keep me searching

And I'm growing old

Keep me searching For a heart of gold I've been a miner For a heart of gold

January 27, 2026

ASX 200 futures up 52 points or 0.6 per cent to 8880

AUD +0.4% to US69.18¢
Bitcoin +1.7% to $US87,815
Wall St:
Dow +0.8% S&P +0.6% Nasdaq +0.5%
VIX -0.26 to 15.83
Gold +1.1% to $US5043.71 an ounce
Brent oil -0.4% to $US65.61 a barrel
Iron ore -1% to $US103.55 a tonne
10-year yield: US 4.21% Australia 4.81%

Markets, Crypto and Culture

January 2026

Sin City Sydney, Australia to Wall Street, New York

Mining, Media and Intel

Digital Bush Telegraph

Jan 13

ASX 200 futures are up 24 points/0.3 per cent to 8755

AUD +0.4% to US67.13¢

Bitcoin $91,736.39 +1.24%

Wall St:
Dow +0.03%
S&P +0.2%
Nasdaq +0.5%
VIX +0.56 to 15.05
Gold +2.3% to $US4614.16 an ounce
Brent oil +0.7% to $US63.76 a barrel
Iron ore +0.5% to $US109.05 a tonne
10-year yield: US 4.18% Australia 4.70%

Shares Today

TKO $199.73 +0.020 +0.010%
Tesla Inc $449.56 +4.55 +1.02%
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp
$13.97 -0.44 -3.05%

News

Crypto: sell-the-growth continues

Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation grew by 1% over the past day and is down 1% from a week ago. Bitcoin received a boost from reports of a criminal investigation against the head of the Federal Reserve, which created momentum for a flight from US assets. In our view, this precedent is negative for risk appetite.

Bitcoin jumped to $92,500 but saw a significant influx of sellers, returning to $90,300 at the time of writing. Testing of the 50-day moving average as support continues. A slip below $90K could have a strong psychological effect, quickly taking the price to $87K and then sending it lower below $80K.

XRP is losing for the seventh day in a row, like Bitcoin, rolling back to the 50-day MA and close to the round level of $2.0. The coin is still up 10% since the beginning of the year, but the initial momentum has clearly lost steam, as there are too many people in the markets willing to sell on the rise. Most likely, this change in strategy for all cryptocurrencies will characterise the market in the coming months.

News Background

The total open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has fallen to its lowest level since the end of 2022, according to CryptoQuant. Historically, reaching such levels has preceded periods of consolidation or even bullish reversals.

Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050 in a base case scenario, according to VanEck's forecast. This will happen if the first cryptocurrency becomes a currency for international settlements and enters the reserves of central banks. The main obstacle to mass adoption remains the scalability of the network. VanEck emphasised the importance of developing second-level solutions that will speed up transactions and reduce commissions.

Monero (XMR) is regaining its status as the leading anonymous coin amid the crisis in the Zcash ecosystem following the departure of its development team. The asset has been growing steadily for several weeks, outperforming most of its competitors in the sector.

There are more and more signs in the crypto market pointing to the end of the sell-off. Among them are the stabilisation of outflows from ETFs, the situation with perpetual futures and positions on the CME, according to JPMorgan.

MSCI's decision on 6 January regarding companies accumulating cryptocurrencies is also favourable for cryptocurrencies. The global provider of stock indices has decided not to exclude them from its indices during the review in February 2026.

News

Gold shines on an anti-fiat thesis

The dollar suffered due to threats to the Fed’s independence

Gold managed to renew its record highs.

While labour market statistics strengthened the US dollar, the Justice Department's lawsuit against Jerome Powell seriously weakened it. The USD index recorded its worst fall in three weeks due to fears that the White House could undermine the Fed's independence, filling the FOMC with very dovish members. This risk stands in striking contrast with the current expectations of just two cuts by the end of 2026.

The US administration's lawsuit against Lisa Cook is not without logic. She will remain a member of the FOMC for a long time to come. By comparison, the developments involving the Fed Chair appear considerably more perplexing. Jerome Powell is due to leave his post in May. Moreover, thanks to him, the Committee has been leaning towards lowering rates at recent meetings. The case concerning the renovation of the Federal Reserve building may set a precedent for investigating the circumstances surrounding the recent demolition of the East Wing of the White House.

Markets perceive the resumption of pressure on the Fed as a reason to close short positions on EURUSD.
December employment growth in line with forecasts and a drop in unemployment to 4.4% gave derivatives reason to reduce the chances of easing in March to 29% and in April to 42%, with a full cut not priced in until June. The five-month pause, coupled with wide spreads on US and other bonds, had created a solid foundation for the US dollar to strengthen over the previous two weeks.

The Supreme Court is ready to come to the greenback's aid. It has stated that it will rule on the legality of the White House tariffs on 14 January. The US economy could receive additional stimulus in the form of a return to tariffs. Its acceleration could force the Fed to keep rates high for a long time. This will support the bears on EURUSD.

However, the risks of tariffs being declared illegal do not scare the White House. According to Kevin Hassett, the US will be able to quickly bring its tariff policy back to its previous format. Washington has a plan B that is just as effective as plan A.

The revival of the topic of the Fed's loss of independence allowed Gold to update its record high. For the first time in history, the precious metal exceeded $4,600 per ounce. According to JP Morgan, gold is an anti-fiat currency. The growth of public debt and attacks on central banks are increasing interest in debasement trading. The company is ready to hold up to 20% of its portfolio assets in precious metals and similar assets, changing the classic 60/40 model. (FxPro)

The Lead Up

Jan 12

ASX futures up 12 points or 0.1%/8697
AUD flat at US66.94¢
Bitcoin $90,571.34 - 0.17%
Dow +0.5%
S&P +0.7%
Nasdaq +0.8%
Gold +0.7% to $US4509.50 an ounce
Brent oil +2.2% at $US63.34 a barrel
Iron ore +0.4% at $US108.30 a ton

Before The Bell

Media Man Favs

TKO Group Holdings Inc $199.63 -2.46 -1.22%
Netflix Inc $89.44 -1.09 -1.21%
Paramount Skydance Corp $12.06 -0.21 -1.71%
Tesla Inc $445.01 +9.21 +2.11%
Microsoft Corp $479.28 +1.17 +0.24%
Alphabet Inc Class A $328.57 +3.13 +0.96%

News

Jan 12

Numbers Double Check

Australian Dollar: $0.6671 USD (down $0.0022 USD) Iron Ore Feb Spot Price: $108.30 USD (up $0.05 USD) Oil Price: $59.12 USD (up $0.90 USD)
Gold Price: $4,509.20 USD (up $52.48 USD)
Copper Price: $5.8905 USD (up 0.0990 USD)
Dow Jones: 49,504.07 (up 237.96 points)

News Lead Up

Jan 10

ASX 200 futures up 29 points/0.3 per cent to 8714

AUD -0.1% to US66.90¢

Bitcoin $90,338.65 -0.95%

Wall St:
Dow +0.5%
S&P +0.7%
Nasdaq +0.8%
VIX -0.97 to 14.48
Gold +0.6% to $US4506.19 an ounce
Brent oil +1.7% to $US63.02 a barrel
Iron ore +0.4% to $US108.30 a ton

10-year yield:
US 4.17%
Australia 4.68%

News

Geopolitics will destroy the euro

EURUSD falls due to geopolitics and expectations of tariff removal

Gold returns to debasement trading

The US dollar continued its advance on Forex thanks to a new batch of strong macro statistics. Jobless claims rose less than expected. Productivity rose to a two-year high, and the US trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to its lowest level since 2009. Donald Trump's plan to balance foreign trade with import tariffs is working. However, the Supreme Court may rule the tariffs illegal by the end of the week on 9 January. The cancellation of import duties would return funds to American companies and households, which have largely absorbed the cost of tariffs that previously weighed on economic growth. The US economy has continued to expand, supported by investment in artificial intelligence, rising productivity, and the wealth effect created by record equity markets that have boosted household prosperity. The return of tariff revenues would effectively act as a fiscal stimulus, increasing disposable income and corporate cash flow. As a result, GDP growth and inflationary pressures are likely to accelerate. This combination will create another barrier to lowering the federal funds rate. Stephen Miron's calls to cut it by 150 basis points in 2026 seem like a voice crying in the wilderness. Most FOMC members understand perfectly well what the return of money from tariffs could lead to. The hawks will gain a strong trump card, the pause in the monetary expansion cycle will be prolonged, and the US dollar will benefit from this. Rumours of additional sanctions against Russia are putting pressure on the EURUSD. Diplomatic efforts to bring peace to Ukraine are not yielding results, and the continuation of the armed conflict will continue to hold back the eurozone economy. Events in Venezuela and talk of Greenland joining the US are increasing geopolitical tensions. According to ECB Vice-President Luis Guindos, this could hurt business, and increased household savings will slow GDP growth. Despite the strengthening of the US dollar, gold has managed to counterattack. The precious metal is able to benefit from the Supreme Court's repeal of tariffs. The return of money will lead to an increase in the US budget deficit and public debt. These processes underlie debasement trading. In 2025, it became one of the key drivers of the 65% rally in XAUUSD. (FxPro)

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From gold to crypto, fundies name their top trades for 2026

It’s not all about gold in 2026 as investors reveal their high-conviction plays across the ASX, commodities, currencies and bitcoin.

Jan 7

Investors have headed into the new year convinced that the roaring bull market in safe havens like gold and silver will not be the only game in town for making money.

While the record run for gold is expected to hold its ground, fund managers and strategists say the road map for financial markets will start to broaden into slightly more adventurous territory.

After 12 months of the ASX struggling to keep pace with its international peers and the stubborn weakness in the Australian dollar, bitcoin is among the assets tipped to make a comeback.

The market is expected to shift its focus towards the changing of the guard at the US Federal Reserve and the path of global interest rates.

Against this backdrop, here are some of the top trades that professional investors have made across asset classes for 2026.

Commodities
Geologist turned fund manager Rick Squire at Acorn Capital says the multi-year rally in gold will continue, but he is betting that producers of the yellow metal and businesses with advanced development projects like Golden Horse Minerals and Rox Resources will be the biggest winners.

“The best gains will come from developers or companies starting up new operations,” he says. “Explorers may also start to run, but that will be in late 2026 or later.”

Argonaut’s David Franklyn is the most bullish on uranium as major global economies look to nuclear energy as a component of their base load power.

Perennial’s resource specialist Sam Berridge agrees, adding that uranium could be the next critical mineral that the US backs as a means of spurring investment in domestic supply.

“The nuclear renaissance 2.0 accelerated materially into the close of 2025,” Berridge says.

In a more contrarian pick, Richard Morrow, who runs the Lowell Resources Fund, believes oil will shrug off concerns about oversupply and bounce back as the US dollar continues to soften. Brent prices lost 16 per cent last year because of a global supply glut.

Stocks
While the broader sharemarket is tipped to grind higher in 2026, Australian Ethical head of Australian equities Nathan Parkin says some of the best opportunities are in building materials, particularly companies with meaningful US exposure such as Reece.

While the stock declined into the back half of 2025, causing it to slip out of the ASX 100, Parkin believes Reece’s earnings have finally bottomed. “The propensity for those earnings is to be sharply higher in the next few years,” he says.

Parkin also likes Reliance Worldwide, describing its focus more on home repair and maintenance rather than new builds that is still leveraged to a recovery in building demand.

Aaron Binsted of Lazard Asset Management, meanwhile, says he has shifted his focus to more long-term bets for 2026 and is betting on logistics and moving away from the local tech sector.

His top picks are New Zealand-based Mainfreight and Freightways.

“As the economy turns, we’re expecting those to be good long-term earnings per share and dividend growers,” Binsted says.

For Morningstar director of equity research Johannes Faul, the best opportunities are in the smaller retailers – specifically fast food and footwear. Faul says that stocks such as Domino’s Pizza have been unfairly beaten down, creating attractive entry points.

He’s also backing Accent Group, the firm behind several shoe retailers including Hype and Platypus. He says the company’s recent share price slump is “overdone” that has left the stock trading at a deep discount.

Foreign exchange
Currency strategists are betting on a stronger Australian dollar as the Reserve Bank of Australia keeps interest rates high, while other central banks like in Europe and the US look to cut.

Alvise Marino of UBS favours the Aussie against the euro as the German economy falters. He says Australia’s lower debt and higher rates make it the safer bet. “The Aussie is likely to retain an interest rate advantage,” he adds.

The strategist has forecast the euro to drop to $1.70 by late 2026, from $1.75 currently.

Westpac’s Richard Franulovich and NAB’s Ray Attrill, meanwhile, are backing the Aussie against the US dollar. They expect a “diverging” rate path with the Fed to cut the benchmark while the RBA could look to hike.

Attrill adds that a new and likely more “dovish” head of the Fed when chairman Jerome Powell steps down in May will provide an extra tailwind.

Cryptocurrency
In the world of digital assets, Merkle Tree Capital chief investment officer Ryan McMillin is expecting bitcoin to rebound later in the year as the Trump administration “runs the economy hot” heading into the midterm elections.

While bond markets imply at least two US rate cuts in 2026, McMillin is expecting even more easing to be priced once US President Donald Trump names the new Fed chief.

“We see 2026 as a year where market structure and macro finally catch up with the underlying progress,” he says. “Bitcoin to new all-time highs in the second half … led by institutional flows rather than retail leverage.”

Crypto exchange giant Coinbase believes bitcoin will lead a digital rally in the first half before smaller alt-coins play catch up later in the year.

Global head of institutional research David Duong notes that there is $US7.5 trillion ($11.2 trillion) sitting in US money market funds which will be partially redeployed into crypto markets as the Fed cuts rates.

Citi forecasts bitcoin will soar to a record $US143,000 this year, up from about $US93,747 currently, and ethereum will climb to $US4304, up from $US3224, driven by a rebound in demand for exchange-traded funds.

Fixed income
Matthew Wacher, Morningstar’s chief investment officer for Asia-Pacific, likes Australian 10-year government bonds. He argues that with yields of about 4.8 per cent, the bonds offer a better balance of reward and safety than riskier corporate loans or US debt.

“The safety of Aussie government bonds and such yields are pretty attractive. They can give your portfolio a lot of protection,” he says, noting they currently offer the best “risk-adjusted” returns for the year ahead.

Australia is one of only nine countries with a top-notch triple-A rating by the top three rating agencies.

In addition to Australian government bonds, Tim Hext at Pendal is also bullish on gilts, adding that he likes how both Australia and the UK governments are managing their budgets. “At the end of the day, fiscal policy matters more than monetary policy,” he says.

While the United States and Germany continue to spend freely, he says Australia and the UK are cutting public spending or raising taxes. It’s for this reason Hext is betting against US and German government bonds and expects both to perform poorly by comparison. (AFR) *Full article and coverage via subscription to The Australian Financial Review

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The Australian Financial Review wins Media Man 'Newspaper Of The Month' award

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Australia

Jan 9

ASX gains on tech and health; Ansell dives 6pc

The Australian sharemarket posted a modest gain on Thursday, with the S&P/ASX 200 adding 0.3 per cent to close at 8,72.8 points. WiseTech Global was up 2.2 per cent at $68.28, CSL advanced 2.6 per cent to $174.45 and Monadelphous Group finished 2.2 per cent higher at $27.37. However, BHP fell 0.8 per cent to end the session at $47.34, Beach Energy was down 1.4 per cent at $1.07 and takeover target BlueScope Steel shed 1.6 per cent to close at $29.40. (RMS)

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Employment Hero settles with rival Seek

Human resources technology company Employment Hero has dropped its legal action against recruitment firm Seek, which is both an investor in Employment Hero and a rival. Employment Hero launched its action after Seek cut off access to its application program interface (API), which is a tool that permits companies such as Employment Hero to directly post job ads to Seek and to manage job candidate applications. Employment Hero had claimed that Seek's action amounted to anti-competitive conduct, but the two firms have advised that the matter has been resolved. Employment Hero's access to Seek's API will be permanently reinstated, and a three-week hearing scheduled for September will not go ahead. (RMS)

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Nvidia's platform to slash AI costs

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has used the CES, the world's biggest consumer electronics show in Las Vegas, to announce the release of a new hardware platform. Known as Rubin, it promises to reduce the cost of operating large scale artificial intelligence models by 90 per cent, while Huang also announced that Nvidia has entered into a partnership with Mercedes to create the world's first ‘thinking' and 'reasoning' car; he says Nvidia's vision is that every car and truck will be autonomous at some stage in the future (RMS)

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Sports

As Aussies seal Ashes victory, economists hit Bazball for six

England's aggressive batting style known as 'Bazball' is under renewed scrutiny after losing the 2025-26 Ashes series 4-1. E61 Institute economists Adit Maitra and Matthew Maltman have analysed England's performance in Test matches since Bazball was introduced by incoming team coach Brendon McCullum in 2022. They found that England had initial success, winning 13 Tests during the first 18 months of the Bazball era; the team lost four matches and just one resulted in a draw. However, England's win rate has fallen sharply since the 2023 Ashes series, as opposing teams have adjusted their own playing style in response to the Bazball tactics; it should also be noted that England did not tour Australia or India - two of the highest-rated Test nations - during the initial phase of the Bazball era. (RMS)

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Resources/Energy

Defence demand tipped to boost copper stampede

S&P Global has forecast that worldwide demand for copper will top 42 million tonnes by 2040, compared with 28 million tonnes in 2025. However, the firm warns that the demand-supply deficit could reach 10 million by 2040 unless there is a big increase in copper production. Carlos Pascual from S&P Global emphasises that copper supply is now a national security issue, given its importance to industries such as defence and artificial intelligence, and the fact that copper processing is now dominated by China. BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue are amongst the big miners that are ramping up their exposure to copper. (RMS)

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'Like a sauna': World's hottest location

While 40-degree temperatures in Victoria this week amounted to a near record for that state, such temperatures are commonplace in Western Australia's Pilbara region. It is home to much of WA's $150 billion resources sector, but extreme heat there is becoming a material risk and is forcing mining companies to put in measures to protect their assets and their workforces. Dee Egan, who is a resident of the Pilbara town of Onslow, which has endured 45-degree heat for the better part of the past week, says living there feels like you are in a sauna all day. (RMS)

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Oil stocks are cheap for a reason

Shares in Woodside Energy, Santos and Beach Energy have fallen in value by between eight per cent and 44 per cent over the last five years. In contrast, shares in the world's biggest oil companies have risen by up to 161 per cent over this period. Sharemarket experts contend that there are a number of reasons why Australian oil producers are trading at a discount; they include government policy headwinds and the fact that takeover bids are unlikely, as well as company-specific issues. Meanwhile, analysts say the Trump administation's military action in Venezuela is likely to drive the crude oil price lower, while rebuilding the nation's oil industry is expected to take years. (RMS)

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Jan 8

ASX miner cheers Trump's 'involvement' in Greenland

Energy Transition Minerals' MD Daniel Mamadou contends that the potential for increased US involvement in Greenland is a "positive", and that it will benefit companies which operate in the Danish self-governed territory. Energy Transition Minerals is engaged in a long-running dispute with the Greenland government over its Kvanefjeld rare earths project; the deposit also contains uranium, and the government banned uranium mining in 2021. Kvanefjeld is estimated to contain up to one billion tonnes of rare earth minerals, including terbium. Energy Transition Minerals' share price rose 44.9 per cent to $0.145 on Wednesday. (RMS)

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Nickel price offers respite for last few Australian mines

The price of nickel has risen to $US18,785 per tonne in London trading, which is its highest level since October 2024. The rally follows Vale's decision to suspend nickel production in Indonesia until the nation's government approves its annual production plan. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings subsidiary BMI has downgraded its nickel price forecast for 2026 due to expectations that the global surplus will rise; the firm now expects the nickel price to average $US15,000 per tonne. However, BMI is upbeat about the longer-term price outlook, contending that rising demand for nickel will reduce the glut. (Roy Morgan Summary)